Analysis of the optimal vaccination age for dengue in Brazil with a tetravalent dengue vaccine

Analysis of the optimal vaccination age for dengue in Brazil with a tetravalent dengue vaccine

Author Maier, Sandra B. Google Scholar
Huang, Xiao Google Scholar
Massad, Eduardo Google Scholar
Amaku, Marcos Google Scholar
Burattini, Marcelo N. Autor UNIFESP Google Scholar
Greenhalgh, David Google Scholar
Abstract In this paper we study a mathematical model to analyse the optimal vaccination age against Dengue in Brazil. Data from Brazil are used to estimate the basic reproduction numbers for each of the four Dengue serotypes and then the optimal vaccination age is calculated using a method due to Hethcote [1]. The vaccine has different efficacies against each serotype. Vaccination that is too early is ineffective as individuals are protected by maternal antibodies but leaving vaccination until later may allow the disease to spread. First of all the optimal vaccination ages ate calculated where there is just one serotype in circulation and then when there are multiple serotypes. The calculations are done using data both assuming constant vaccine efficacy and age-dependent vaccine efficacy against a given serotype. The multiple serotype calculations are repeated assuming that the first infection is a risky infection and that it is not (to model Dengue Antibody Enhancement). The calculations are then repeated when any third or fourth Dengue infections are asymptomatic, so that two Dengue infections with different serotypes provide effective permanent immunity. The calculations are also repeated when the age-dependent risk function (fitted to Brazilian data) is hospitalisation from Dengue and when it is mortality due to Dengue. We find a wide variety of optimal vaccination ages depending on both the serotypes in circulation and the assumptions of the model. (C) 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords Dengue
Vaccination
Optimal vaccination age
Age-structured model
Serotype
Risk function
Mortality
Hospitalisation
Mathematical model
xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-coverage New York
Language English
Sponsor University of Strathclyde
Leverhulme Trust
British Council Malaysia from the Dengue Tech Challenge
Science Without Borders Program (CNPq)
Grant number Leverhulme Trust: RF-2015-88
DTC: 16022
CNPq: 30098/2014/7
Date 2017
Published in Mathematical Biosciences. New York, v. 294, p. 15-32, 2017.
ISSN 0025-5564 (Sherpa/Romeo, impact factor)
Publisher Elsevier Science Inc
Extent 15-32
Origin http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2017.09.004
Access rights Closed access
Type Article
Web of Science ID WOS:000419414200002
URI https://repositorio.unifesp.br/handle/11600/58054

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